Unrest in Egypt and its Implications

If Mumbaraks Regime Falls , It will be a more “Destabilising” event in the US sphere of interest of Middle-East than that of Iran acquiring Nuclear Capability in the eyes of US policy makers.
The risk is more for US allied Dictatorships like Jordan , Yemen than that of enemies like Syria or Libya , because these US –allied dictatorships are relatively Democratised even if they are Sham Democraci and they have weak or Ineffective Internal Security Forces. For neutral countries like Algeria it is mixed, but protests there may be much more violent and the govt may be more Ruthless in suppressing them because of the presence of Alquaida in Islamic Maghreb .
For example the Egyptian Police Didn’t Use live “fire” most of the time and the Riot police were mostly “professional” and it was only Secret Police that beat up protestors with clubs. When Syria Faced an Islamic Rebellion , they used Overvhelming force best Demonstrated in the taking over the town of Hamdhi a rebel Stronghold, they use 150mm artillery shells to level the whole town and causualities were estimated at more than 10,000 when they refused to surrender. Compared to that Hosni mubaraks dealings with the brotherhood seems to be soft.
Yemen simply has too many small-arms, estimates at 3 guns per head, If widespread protests start in Yemen people wont be simply throwing rocks and molotovs like in Egypt, but they wil be firing RPG’s and Kalashnikovs.

Situation in Sinai Peninsula: There is a srong wahabi presence among the Bedouins and ultimatlely may be linked to AQ, as recent bombings of tourist resorts show, already the security forces abandoned their Posts and armed Bedouin seem to be in Control. What means to the US lead coalation of multinational force is unclear, recently the Maryland National Guard relieved Illinois National Guard of 500 personell and their deployment seem to send wrong signals that US is sending troops to help the regime. Its compulsory for every Egyptian man to serve in the Army for atleast 3 years, that may explain for the army being neutral, but Mubarak also established the National Guard which is principally based around Cairo it is a heavily armored division and was specifically created to deal with Rebellions .
Most of the Egyptian military hardware is made In US